The global service economy continues to expand in complexity and scale as digitalization, knowledge-intensive work, and cross-border trade reshape how services are produced and consumed. This report summarizes the most recent 2025 figures available from international institutions and outlines key forecasts for 2026.

Global Economic Context

According to the OECD, global GDP growth is projected to ease from approximately 3.3% in 2024 to around 3.2% in 2025, with a further slowdown to about 2.9% expected in 2026. Several factors continue to influence this trend, including higher trade costs, persistent tariff risks, policy uncertainty, and softening investment dynamics.

Trade in Services: 2025 Performance and 2026 Outlook

The service sector remains one of the strongest contributors to global trade growth. WTO data indicates that exports of commercial services grew by about 6.8% in 2024. That momentum is expected to moderate, with forecasts pointing to roughly 4.6% growth in 2025 and around 4.4% in 2026. Although slower than in 2024, these figures suggest continued structural expansion within globally tradable service categories.

Service Sector Share and Employment Patterns

While comprehensive world-level 2025 figures for services’ share of GDP and employment are still being consolidated, longer-term patterns remain unchanged. Services account for the largest share of global economic activity—typically around two-thirds of world GDP—and represent the leading employer in most economies. These structural characteristics are expected to persist throughout 2025 and into 2026.

Key Structural Trends Shaping 2025–2026

  • Digitally delivered services: Rapid expansion continues in IT services, cloud infrastructure, remote professional support, digital design, and online education.
  • Knowledge-intensive business services: Consulting, finance, legal, engineering, and scientific services remain strong drivers of cross-border value and productivity.
  • Global service delivery: Countries with strong digital capabilities are increasingly exporting services without requiring physical presence.
  • Automation and AI: Automation influences both demand and delivery models across service segments, accelerating innovation while reshaping labour needs.
  • Urbanization and demographic shifts: Economic transitions toward urban, higher-income populations continue to increase demand for healthcare, education, creative, and lifestyle services.

Regional Dynamics

Advanced economies maintain the highest concentration of service-sector activity, often exceeding 70% of GDP. Emerging markets continue to strengthen their service bases, particularly in telecommunications, digital services, logistics, and tourism. Countries in South and Southeast Asia show notable momentum in exporting IT-enabled and remotely delivered services, while several Latin American and African economies are gradually expanding service productivity from lower initial baselines.

2026 Forecast Summary

  • Commercial services exports: growth expected around the mid–4% range.
  • Knowledge-intensive and digitally deliverable services: projected to be the fastest-growing categories globally.
  • Traditional in-person services: growth expected to be moderate due to economic headwinds and shifting consumption patterns.
  • Global macro environment: likely to see continued policy uncertainty and softer investment, but overall positive service-sector expansion.

Conclusion

The global service industry in 2025 continues to represent the dominant share of global economic activity. Despite a more moderate pace of growth compared with 2024, the sector remains structurally strong, underpinned by digital transformation, cross-border trade, and the continued global shift toward knowledge-based work. Forecasts for 2026 suggest continued growth in services, albeit with slightly slower momentum, reinforcing the sector’s central role in the global economy.